Category: Primers

  • The Time Decay

    The Time Decay

    The exponential decay of time proves that all the focus on studying news, prices, psychology, and mathematical order are indirect ways to study time.

  • The 80-20 Cycle

    The 80-20 Cycle

    80/20 is a globally used term and another name for the Pareto principle. Though initially used to illustrate wealth allocation 80/20 was found to be a verified law (power-law).

  • The Triangular Harmony

    The Triangular Harmony

    A simple triangle can integrate all market theories. Can we spot it? While writing ‘Theory of Moral Sentiments’ in 1776, Adam Smith would never have thought that after 2 centuries people will find it oxymoronic to see morals and sentiment in the same phrase. Now, sentiment creates the popular news, lack of morals are ascribed…

  • The Dow Psychology

    The Dow Psychology

    The first person I heard keeping a track of Dow Industrials Average on a day-to-day basis was a business school senior of mine from the class of 1997. Little did I know then that in barely ten years, the world will get glued to Dow daily and intraday movements.

  • The Frantic Call Index

    The Frantic Call Index

    We have an index of phone calls at Orpheus. This is an internal sentiment index that we use. The more the calls we receive in a certain week, the stronger the market sentiment.

  • Without Water

    Without Water

    Water, a critical renewable resource, has just started a multi-year boom, which should leave even oil behind. Throwing out the baby with the bathwater is an idiom that has its origins on the monthly bathing ritual in Europe before the 16th century.

  • Blind Men And The Elephant

    Blind Men And The Elephant

    At a farewell party last night, we found that five of us had the same birthday, which was quite a coincidence as the gathering was small. There, a friend from Lebanon who is a senior techie at a Fortune 500 infrastructure company asked me to explain how such recurring coincidences take place often. There was…

  • Revisiting CARITAS

    Revisiting CARITAS

    It may still be vivid in many investors’ minds the game of the century, ‘Caritas’, the Ponzi* scheme of the early 1990s in Romania. It was owned by Ioan Stoica and attracted over 400,000 investors who gambled over 1 billion dollars because it promised to repay 8 times the amount invested. Although Caritas lasted for…

  • Breaking News

    Breaking News

    The stock news from the Paris stock exchange could reach market players in time to profit from it. That was then, now things are different. Now we have 24 hours markets, so even if London bombing news reaches you early, by the time the spot starts trading, you have futures that are moving up from…

  • Trashing economic axioms

    Trashing economic axioms

    We humans are strange beings. We love to trash what we create, wealth or peace. It’s a harsh reality. Euphemistically we might call it a new age theory, or evolution. But the reality is that psychology is calling 200-year-old economic thought junk.