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  • Long India, Short China

    Long India, Short China

    I have the privilege of working very close to the city center and since the city is surrounded by hills, as you move away from the center, the altitude keeps rising. This gives me a chance to see a big 600-year-old church surrounded by long pine trees and celebrated by a huge metal statue of…

    February 21, 2009
  • Finding Peter Lynch

    Finding Peter Lynch

    Both Jonathan Clements and Hersh Shefrin say it’s tough looking for the next Lynch. Clement said it in 1990 in an article in Wall Street Journal, while Hersh says it loud in his book on behavioral finance. They are both true, finding a 13-year stellar growth record with the underlying fund growing from $ 20…

    February 8, 2009
  • The Uncertainty Bias

    The Uncertainty Bias

    The Oct low we talked about held against all odds. A strange time cycle held against all conventional knowledge, which failed. And now that 2008 comes to end, we can sum up a few gaps in generational thinking which concerns us as a society and as economic beings.

    December 28, 2008
  • Selling the trough

    Selling the trough

    Conviction is a strange thing, it tests you, your determination, your homework, your skill, how individual you are and how patient you are wearing the fool’s crown. It does one more thing, it makes you extremely individual, probably alone (when you are right), screaming sell at a top and buy at a bottom. But then…

    November 20, 2008
  • American market hits bottom

    American market hits bottom

    This is a harsh reality, but masses don’t understand cycles and the uncanny asset linkages. The fact is that we at Orpheus too are also scratching the surface. Though there are market timing models, timing the market in future with a small time window of a few days, is a skill we look up to.

    November 15, 2008
  • Agricultural Cycles

    Agricultural Cycles

    Give a choice, humans would like to erase the down part of the cycle. Living with an upcycle is convenient. But the balance of nature is very intricate, and we as masses don’t understand it. This is why it is hard to appreciate growth and decay in markets. What we accept as natural, we fail…

    October 6, 2008
  • The Dow Psychology

    The Dow Psychology

    The first person I heard keeping a track of Dow Industrials Average on a day-to-day basis was a business school senior of mine from the class of 1997. Little did I know then that in barely ten years, the world will get glued to Dow daily and intraday movements.

    October 3, 2008
  • The Frantic Call Index

    The Frantic Call Index

    We have an index of phone calls at Orpheus. This is an internal sentiment index that we use. The more the calls we receive in a certain week, the stronger the market sentiment.

    September 22, 2008
  • Age of Inflation

    Age of Inflation

    Waiting for depression might take more than a lifetime. And what might hit us is inflation and not deflation.

    September 10, 2008
  • The October Low

    The October Low

    October lows have extreme sentiments linked to them making them great multi-month, multi-year and in some cases multi-decade bottoms. We are nearing October 2008. If this looks like just another calendar date, think again.

    September 8, 2008
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