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Why is Geoffrey Hinton Worried about AI?
May 2, 2023 I won’t kill myself with worry about the fast pace of machine intelligence, if I was Hinton. We are living intelligence times. This was the objective we were working on for the last 80 years, when McCullough and Pitts designed the Turing-Complete “artificial neurons” in 1943. So why worry about it now? …
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S&P500 can’t forecast
April 29, 2023 As the expectations for AI to change finance forever are increasing, a look back would help Investors understand the limitation of information to forecast. Information may carry all the elements to see the future because it comes from the past, but old information creates new information, old drift creates new drift, so…
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S&P500 Ain’t Passive
April 16, 2023 More than 20 Trillion (T) Dollars are managed passively today. The industry is 25% of the total $100 T investment management industry and has seen an annual growth of 20% since 2007 while the Active industry has grown at 4.4% for the same period at these growth rates. At the current growth…
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ChatGPT to Vox
April 6, 2023 I have thought about machines that assimilate knowledge for more than a decade. For me, assimilation was always an achievable present, not a future imagination. The 2002 film Time Machine based on H.G. Wells’ novel left an indelible mark on me. The hero of the film, an inventor, Alexander Hartdegen communicates with…
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Value underperforms
March 29, 2023 Investing styles nomenclature has a history going back to the 1920s. Though Graham and Dodd never used the phrase, “value investing”, they are credited for the same. The term was coined later to help describe their ideas. The Graham approach was to recommend low-risk entry inexpensive (cheap) stocks. They advocated a systematic…
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Interest Rate Elephant!
March 14, 2023 Interest rates like many other things have been rarely understood. Not because they ride on a black swan but because humans are economic beings that are steeped in short-sighted gains driven by instant gratification. This is why the cycles of history keep rhyming because the new generation does not learn from the…
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The Missed Apple of S&P 500!
The Missed Apple of S&P 500! If you are using S&P 500 Index Fund to feel good about your Apple ownership, think again. S&P 500’s current near 6.5% ownership of Apple has come after a lot of legacy foregone profit from the same Apple. Apple first became a billion-dollar company in December 1980, after its…
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The [3N] Method
![The [3N] Method](https://mukulpal.ro/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/1676683946842.png)
Abstract The [3N] Mechanism reconciles the conflict between informational states. This paper takes the idea of the [3N] mechanism and reexplains it as the combination of the Market Capitalization [MCAP] weighting methodology which can be understood as the Rich-Get-Richer, Non-Normal approach [NN] and Value investing, which can be understood as Poor-Get-Richer, Normal approach [N]. The…
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Need No AI to beat the S&P500!
This is my conversation with ChatGPT on the Granger’s challenge about AI, Indexing, S&P 500, why new Indexing mathematics is needed to beat the S&P 500 and why AI can’t do it. Please summarize your understanding of application of AI in building smart beta to beat the market? Smart beta strategies aim to outperform traditional…
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EVA India Scorecard – Concentration Risks
We have seen the SPIVA scorecards and how Active Mangers underperform the S&P Indexes. This is brilliant work done by the S&P Global team as they have persistently articulated how it’s hard to select and beat the S&P Indexes around the world. This feature is about introducing our scorecard and for simplicity we are calling…