The modern city I knew as a child keeps changing. There used to be more roads and fewer cars, now there are only cars. If you want to see roads and have driving pleasure you have to skip two-thirds of the day. Ok, this may be more valid coming from an emerging market like India…

There is nothing wrong with metals. It is we who don’t have a real perception of them. The regular investor who is so equity-focused, a bit fixed income-focused is a bit aware of gold and oil prices and that’s where it stops. When it comes to commodities or say metals, one has to cross the…

I was in Budapest for a market conference. The theme was based on Martin Pring’s recent book, ‘Investing in another lost decade’. Pring is the second generation of technicians along with John Murphy and Robert Prechter. Pring’s generation followed the generation of J. Welles Wilder, Joseph E. Granville and Ralph N Elliott.

The 1980s high was 150, talking about a 200 dollar target is much beyond the euro-dollar parity. What could be a few reasons a target beyond previous high at 150 may start assuming some probability? First: Dollar Index has made average 15-year cycles starting 1970’s. A bottoming cycle in 2008 at least suggests multiyear strength…

Conviction is a strange thing, it tests you, your determination, your homework, your skill, how individual you are and how patient you are wearing the fool’s crown. It does one more thing, it makes you extremely individual, probably alone (when you are right), screaming sell at a top and buy at a bottom. But then…

This is a harsh reality, but masses don’t understand cycles and the uncanny asset linkages. The fact is that we at Orpheus too are also scratching the surface. Though there are market timing models, timing the market in future with a small time window of a few days, is a skill we look up to.

Give a choice, humans would like to erase the down part of the cycle. Living with an upcycle is convenient. But the balance of nature is very intricate, and we as masses don’t understand it. This is why it is hard to appreciate growth and decay in markets. What we accept as natural, we fail…